2012 Forecasting

Housing numbers rebound

National economists and analysts have begun to awaken to the fact that the national housing market, (new and used) is beginning to turn. That is to say that most Real Estate markets cannot fall much farther.

Link to the full story:
http://www.housingwire.com/2011/12/05/barclays-analyst-sees-housing-rebound-coming-in-2012

What does that mean here locally?

· First thing there is no such thing as a national real estate market. A sale in New York has no affect on a sale in Austin! A sale in Georgetown has no affect on a sale in Buda. It just doesn’t.

· Locally as well as regionally (Austin, San Antonio) the market has turned. Is the robustness of 2006? No. Locally, values as well as volume of sales are better than 2009 /2010. We have fewer inventories available. Less listings in MLS than we had a year ago, less new homes available, less developed lots available, less rentals available, less office space. Very little has been entitled or developed the last 4 to 5 years putting pressure on the market inventory. The local market is just waiting for a positive sign!

· So, why hasn’t the demand been there? In those national markets where unemployment and foreclosures are high, there is an obvious answer. Here in Texas and Austin where the market has received national attention for its robustness, it’s been slower than desired. (However it has not been negative.) Austin, San Antonio and Houston have been much stronger, but the national housing malaise and tight credit has held back on the consumer’s desire of spending money in a recessed economy.

· So, what should you do? There has not been a better time to buy a home. We will not see the affordability or the mortgage rates that are currently available. 2012/13 is the time to buy, before the housing economy locally begins to heat up and the home you want is more expensive and not as well located as you wanted. The House / apartment you look at today will be gone tomorrow! From an analysts view, there is not a better time to invest in the market. Are you going to see the discounts you have read about? Talk to you real estate professional………no. Those opportunities are gone and have little to no opportunity to become available in the near future. Begin educating yourself and your clients, with Austin and Texas’s national exposure and robustness, the market is set to come back stronger.

Mark Sprague State Director of Information Capital for Independence Title is a respected analyst of the real estate and financial industries, and the Austin market in particular. For more information contact Mark at msprague@independencetitle.com.